The purpose of this study was to identify causal relationships among variables of transtheoretical model for exercise in the elderly. A predictivel model explaining the stage of change was constructed based on a transtheoretical model. Empirical data for testing the hypothetical model was collected from 198 old adults over 60 years old in a community setting in Seoul, Korea in April and May,1999. Data were analyzed by descriptive statistics and correlational analysis using pc-SAS program. The Linear Structural Modeling (LISREL) 8.0 program was used to find the best fit model which predicts causal relationship of variables. The fit of the hypothetical model to the data was X2=132.85. (df=22, p=.000). GFI=.88, NNFI=.35, NFI=.77, AGFI=.59 which was not favorable but the fit of modified model to the data was X2=46.90. (df=27, p=.01).GFI= .95, NNFI=.91, NFI=.92, AGFI=.87) which was more than moderate. The predictable variables of stage of change for exercise of the Korean elderly were helping relationship, self cognitive determination, conversion of negative condition in process of change and efficacy for exercise . These variables explained 68% of stage of change for exercise of the Korean elderly.