Journal List > J Korean Acad Nurs > v.45(5) > 1003113

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Lee, Park, Yu, and Yun: Non-linear System Dynamics Simulation Modeling of Adolescent Obesity: Using Korea Youth Risk Behavior Web-based Survey
Original Article

Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing 2015; 45(5): 723-732.

Published online: 30 October 2015

DOI: https://doi.org/10.4040/jkan.2015.45.5.723

Non-linear System Dynamics Simulation Modeling of Adolescent Obesity: Using Korea Youth Risk Behavior Web-based Survey

Hanna Lee1, Eun Suk Park1, Jae Kook Yu2, Eun Kyoung Yun3

1College of Nursing Science, Kyung Hee University, Seoul, Korea.

2National Assembly Research Service, Seoul, Korea.

3College of Nursing Science·East-West Nursing Research Institute, Kyung Hee University, Seoul, Korea.

Address reprint requests to: Yun, Eun Kyoung. College of Nursing Science, Kyung Hee University, 26 Kyungheedae-ro, Dongdaemun-gu, Seoul 02453, Korea. Tel: +82-2-961-2348, ekyun@khu.ac.kr

Received 5 March 2015       Revised 22 March 2015       Accepted 1 July 2015

© 2015 Korean Society of Nursing Science

(open-access):

This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution NoDerivs License. (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/) If the original work is properly cited and retained without any modification or reproduction, it can be used and re-distributed in any format and medium.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study was to develop a system dynamics model for adolescent obesity in Korea that could be used for obesity policy analysis.

Methods

On the basis of the casual loop diagram, a model was developed by converting to stock and flow diagram. The Vensim DSS 5.0 program was used in the model development. We simulated method of moments to the calibration of this model with data from The Korea Youth Risk Behavior Web-based Survey 2005 to 2013. We ran the scenario simulation.

Results

This model can be used to understand the current adolescent obesity rate, predict the future obesity rate, and be utilized as a tool for controlling the risk factors. The results of the model simulation match well with the data. It was identified that a proper model, able to predict obesity probability, was established.

Conclusion

These results of stock and flow diagram modeling in adolescent obesity can be helpful in development of obesity by policy planners and other stakeholders to better anticipate the multiple effects of interventions in both the short and the long term. In the future we suggest the development of an expanded model based on this adolescent obesity model.

Keywords: Adolescent, Obesity, Nonlinear dynamics

Figures and Tables

Figure 1

Basic stock flow diagram of adolescent obesity.

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Figure 2

Validation of the model.

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Figure 3

Prediction of overweight and obesity adolescent in 2025.

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Figure 4

Results of scenario simulation.

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Notes

This study was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea in 2014 (NRF-2014R1A1A2057237).

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