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Kim and Kim: A Predictive Model of Depression in Rural Elders-Decision Tree Analysis
Original Article

Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing 2013; 43(3): 442-451.

Published online: 28 June 2013

DOI: https://doi.org/10.4040/jkan.2013.43.3.442

A Predictive Model of Depression in Rural Elders-Decision Tree Analysis

Seong Eun Kim1, Sun Ah Kim2

1Department of Nursing, Woosuk University, Jeonbuk, Korea.

2College of Nursing, Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea.

Address reprint requests to: Kim, Seong Eun. Department of Nursing, Woosuk University, 3 Samnyero, Samnye-eup, Wanju-gun, Jeonbuk 565-701, Korea. Tel: +82-63-290-1899, Fax: +82-63-290-1548, fromutos@daum.net

Received 12 October 2012       Accepted 6 June 2013

© 2013 Korean Society of Nursing Science

Abstract

Purpose

This descriptive study was done to develop a predictive model of depression in rural elders that will guide prevention and reduction of depression in elders.

Methods

A cross-sectional descriptive survey was done using face-to-face private interviews. Participants included in the final analysis were 461 elders (aged≥ 65 years). The questions were on depression, personal and environmental factors, body functions and structures, activity and participation. Decision tree analysis using the SPSS Modeler 14.1 program was applied to build an optimum and significant predictive model to predict depression in rural elders.

Results

From the data analysis, the predictive model for factors related to depression in rural elders presented with 4 path-ways. Predictive factors included exercise capacity, self-esteem, farming, social activity, cognitive function, and gender. The accuracy of the model was 83.7%, error rate 16.3%, sensitivity 63.3%, and specificity 93.6%.

Conclusion

The results of this study can be used as a theoretical basis for developing a systematic knowledge system for nursing and for developing a protocol that prevents depression in elders living in rural areas, thereby contributing to advanced depression prevention for elders.

Keywords: Depression, Aged, Decision trees

Figures and Tables

Figure 1
The predictive model for depression in rural elders.
jkan-43-442-g001
Table 1
General Characteristics (N=461)
jkan-43-442-i001
Table 2
Depression According to Characteristics (N=461)
jkan-43-442-i002
Table 3
Accuracy of the Predictive Model for Depression in Rural Elders (N=461)
jkan-43-442-i003

Notes

This manuscript is based on a part of the first author's doctoral dissertation from Yonsei University.

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