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Kim and Kim: Verification of Validity of MPM II for Neurological Patients in Intensive Care Units
Original Article
Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing

Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing 2011; 41(1): 92-100.

Published online: 28 February 2011

DOI: https://doi.org/10.4040/jkan.2011.41.1.92

Verification of Validity of MPM II for Neurological Patients in Intensive Care Units

Heejeong Kim1, Kyunghee Kim2

1Full-time Lecturer, Department of Nursing, Namseoul University, Cheonan, Korea.

2Professor, Department of Nursing, Chung-Ang University, Seoul, Korea.

Address reprint requests to: Kim, Kyunghee. Department of Nursing, Chung-Ang University, 29 Heukseong-no, Dongjak-gu, Seoul 155-756, Korea. Tel: +82-2-820-5670, Fax: +82-2-824-7961, kyung@cau.ac.kr

Received 14 May 2010       Accepted 25 February 2011

© 2011 Korean Society of Nursing Science

Abstract

Purpose

Mortality Provability Model (MPM) II is a model for predicting mortality probability of patients admitted to ICU. This study was done to test the validity of MPM II for critically ill neurological patients and to determine applicability of MPM II in predicting mortality of neurological ICU patients.

Methods

Data were collected from medical records of 187 neurological patients over 18 yr of age who were admitted to the ICU of C University Hospital during the period from January 2008 to May 2009. Collected data were analyzed through χ2 test, t-test, Mann-Whiteny test, goodness of fit test, and ROC curve.

Results

As to mortality according to patients' general and clinically related characteristics, mortality was statistically significantly different for ICU stay, hospital stay, APACHE III score, APACHE predicted death rate, GCS, endotracheal intubation, and central venous catheter. Results of Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test were MPM II0 (χ2=0.02, p=.989), MPM II24 (χ2=0.99 p=.805), MPM II48 (χ2=0.91, p=.822), and MPM II72 (χ2=1.57, p=.457), and results of the discrimination test using the ROC curve were MPM II0, .726 (p<.001), MPM II24, .764 (p<.001), MPM II48, .762 (p<.001), and MPM II72, .809 (p<.001).

Conclusion

MPM II was found to be a valid mortality prediction model for neurological ICU patients.

Keywords: Intensive care unit, Neurology, Mortality, Validity

Figures and Tables

Table 1
General and Clinical Characteristics and Difference of Mortality according to General and Clinical Characteristics (N=187)
jkan-41-92-i001

*Mean±SD; †Median (range); ‡Z value of Mann-Whitney test.

BMI=Body Mass Index; ER=Emergency Room; OR=Operating Room; DM=Diabetes Mellitus; NS=Neurosurgery; NU=Neurology; GCS=Glasgow Coma Scale; ICU= Intensive Care Unit; LOS=Length of Stay.

Table 2
Hosmer-Lemeshow Goodness-of Fit Test and ROC Curve for MPM II
jkan-41-92-i002

ROC=Receiver operating characteristic; AUC=Area under the curve; CI =Confidence Interval.

Table 3
Comparison of Sensitivity, Specificity, and Accuracy of the MPM II0, 24, 48, 72. at Decision Thresholds of 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6 and 0.7
jkan-41-92-i003

Notes

This article is based on a part of the first author's doctoral thesis from Chungang University.

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